Tournament & evaluation

Plots

Evaluation for normal finished matches

forecast Brier score uncertainty resolution reliability
always 5-5 0.250 0.249 0.000 0.001
prior expected score 0.205 0.246 0.041 0.000
model 0.152 0.249 0.152 0.057

P1 P2 matchup P1 wins
zhavier Nekoatl 0.927 1/1
FrozenStorm OffKilter 0.848 1/1
FrozenStorm charnel_mouse 0.827 1/1
bansa Moby_Dick 0.822 1/1
zhavier Bomber678 0.750 1/1
bansa Dreamfire 0.709 1/2
bansa zango 0.687 1/1
Dreamfire zhavier 0.669 1/2
charnel_mouse Nekoatl 0.664 1/1
FrozenStorm zango 0.659 0/1
Moby_Dick OffKilter 0.636 1/1
Moby_Dick charnel_mouse 0.616 1/1
zhavier bansa 0.602 1/1
zango Moby_Dick 0.602 1/1
Dreamfire FrozenStorm 0.535 1/1
zhavier FrozenStorm 0.521 1/1
Dreamfire bansa 0.504 0/1
bansa zhavier 0.493 0/1
Bomber678 zango 0.442 0/1
Moby_Dick zango 0.399 0/1
zango bansa 0.335 0/1
zango Dreamfire 0.319 0/1
Nekoatl Bomber678 0.264 0/1
Bomber678 FrozenStorm 0.237 0/1
charnel_mouse zhavier 0.211 0/1
OffKilter bansa 0.153 0/1

Nash equilibria for entrants

Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).

Mean Nash win rate

Deck-only mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.555
P2 0.445
Both 0.500

Overall mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.55
P2 0.45
Both 0.50

Mean Nash pick rate

Deck-only mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
[Demonology]/Finesse/Peace 0.208 0.170 0.256
[Necromancy]/Balance/Truth 0.129 0.246 0.233
[Necromancy]/Discipline/Present 0.169 0.123 0.166
[Anarchy]/Growth/Strength 0.155 0.110 0.113
[Finesse]/Feral/Truth 0.148 0.085 0.105
[Blood/Fire]/Feral 0.057 0.068 0.037
[Balance]/Anarchy/Peace 0.060 0.064 0.036
[Law]/Fire/Growth 0.033 0.086 0.029
[Balance/Growth]/Strength 0.040 0.049 0.026

Overall mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
bansa 0.272 0.298 0.328
zhavier 0.230 0.211 0.222
Dreamfire 0.233 0.145 0.187
FrozenStorm 0.123 0.196 0.128
zango 0.076 0.089 0.071
Moby_Dick 0.061 0.055 0.064
OffKilter 0.004 0.003 0.001
charnel_mouse 0.001 0.003 0.000

Entrants

player deck
FrozenStorm [Necromancy]/Balance/Truth
Bomber678 [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength
zango [Balance]/Anarchy/Peace
zhavier [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength
Dreamfire [Necromancy]/Discipline/Present
OffKilter [Finesse]/Feral/Truth
Nekoatl [Balance/Growth]/Strength
charnel_mouse [Law]/Fire/Growth
Moby_Dick [Demonology]/Finesse/Peace
bansa [Blood/Fire]/Feral

Matches

round player1 player2 deck1 deck2 victor victory
1 bansa Dreamfire [Blood/Fire]/Feral [Necromancy]/Discipline/Present Dreamfire normal
1 FrozenStorm charnel_mouse [Necromancy]/Balance/Truth [Law]/Fire/Growth FrozenStorm normal
1 Bomber678 zango [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength [Balance]/Anarchy/Peace zango normal
1 Moby_Dick OffKilter [Demonology]/Finesse/Peace [Finesse]/Feral/Truth Moby_Dick normal
1 zhavier Nekoatl [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength [Balance/Growth]/Strength zhavier normal
2 Dreamfire FrozenStorm [Necromancy]/Discipline/Present [Necromancy]/Balance/Truth Dreamfire normal
2 zango Moby_Dick [Balance]/Anarchy/Peace [Demonology]/Finesse/Peace zango normal
2 charnel_mouse zhavier [Law]/Fire/Growth [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength zhavier normal
2 OffKilter bansa [Finesse]/Feral/Truth [Blood/Fire]/Feral bansa normal
2 Nekoatl Bomber678 [Balance/Growth]/Strength [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength Bomber678 normal
3 zango Dreamfire [Balance]/Anarchy/Peace [Necromancy]/Discipline/Present Dreamfire normal
3 zhavier Bomber678 [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength zhavier normal
3 bansa Moby_Dick [Blood/Fire]/Feral [Demonology]/Finesse/Peace bansa normal
3 FrozenStorm OffKilter [Necromancy]/Balance/Truth [Finesse]/Feral/Truth FrozenStorm normal
3 charnel_mouse Nekoatl [Law]/Fire/Growth [Balance/Growth]/Strength charnel_mouse normal
4 Dreamfire zhavier [Necromancy]/Discipline/Present [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength zhavier normal
4 Bomber678 FrozenStorm [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength [Necromancy]/Balance/Truth FrozenStorm normal
4 bansa zango [Blood/Fire]/Feral [Balance]/Anarchy/Peace bansa normal
4 Moby_Dick charnel_mouse [Demonology]/Finesse/Peace [Law]/Fire/Growth Moby_Dick normal
5 zhavier FrozenStorm [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength [Necromancy]/Balance/Truth zhavier normal
5 Dreamfire bansa [Necromancy]/Discipline/Present [Blood/Fire]/Feral bansa normal
5 Moby_Dick zango [Demonology]/Finesse/Peace [Balance]/Anarchy/Peace zango normal
6 zhavier bansa [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength [Blood/Fire]/Feral zhavier normal
6 FrozenStorm zango [Necromancy]/Balance/Truth [Balance]/Anarchy/Peace zango normal
7 Dreamfire zhavier [Necromancy]/Discipline/Present [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength Dreamfire normal
7 zango bansa [Balance]/Anarchy/Peace [Blood/Fire]/Feral bansa normal
8 bansa Dreamfire [Blood/Fire]/Feral [Necromancy]/Discipline/Present bansa normal
9 bansa zhavier [Blood/Fire]/Feral [Anarchy]/Growth/Strength zhavier normal